Insert picture: Kuo Kai-Wen
25th April 2025 – (Taipei) A widely circulated prediction from an Okinawan psychic, Kinjo Tamotsu, claims that a magnitude 8.3 earthquake will strike northern Tokyo Bay on 26th April at 2.58pm, followed by a 30-meter-high tsunami within 30 minutes. The prophecy, which includes specific details about the time, location, and scale of the disaster, has caused anxiety among many, with some citizens expressing scepticism and others urging preparedness.
The prediction has also sparked concern among Taiwanese netizens, worried about potential impacts on Taiwan. However, former Director of Taiwan’s CWA’s seismology centre, Kuo Kai-Wen, dismissed these fears. He stated that Tokyo is at least 4,000 kilometres from Taiwan, and neither seismic waves nor tsunamis from such an event would affect the island. He further emphasised the lack of scientific basis in such prophecies, likening them to “the boy who cried wolf.”
Kuo provided historical context with the 1771 Yaeyama earthquake in Japan, which generated an 85-meter tsunami that devastated Ishigaki Island but left Taiwan untouched. He also cited Japan’s 2025 government risk assessment, which estimates a 75%-82% probability of a Nankai Trough earthquake occurring within the next 30 years. The daily probability of such an event is as low as 1 in 7000, while Taiwan experiences magnitude 6 earthquakes at a daily probability of 1 in 100.
The prophecy gained traction online due to its accuracy in specifying time and magnitude, adding to public unease. However, many dismissed it as baseless fearmongering. Comments included: “Such predictions are becoming more frequent,” “Don’t incite panic, but it’s good to be prepared,” and “Leave it to fate and don’t overthink.”
Separately, manga artist Ryo Tatsuki, who previously predicted the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in her book The Future I Saw, has drawn attention for mentioning a potential major earthquake on 5th July this year, further fuelling global discussions about seismic risks in Japan.
AloJapan.com