How this Japanese data may have proved that Elon Musk’s ‘fears’ are right

Japan’s population plummeted by a record 898,000 people in 2024, according to official data released earlier this week, validating Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s previous warnings about the country’s demographic crisis, in which he noted that “Japan’s population is now dropping by almost a million people per year.”
The Interior Ministry’s figures show the non-foreign population now stands at 120.3 million, marking the 13th consecutive annual decline and the largest single-year drop since comparable data collection began in 1950. Including foreign nationals, Japan’s total population fell by 550,000 to 123.8 million, continuing a 14-year downward trend.
These stark figures align with Musk’s tweet earlier this year, that “unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist,” a comment that sparked controversy, especially in the Japan, but highlighted a demographic reality that is now accelerating, per the government data released.

Government struggles to reverse population decline

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi acknowledged the government’s ongoing efforts to address the crisis, noting that “many people who wish to raise children are not able to fulfill their wishes” due to economic constraints.
The population decline has widespread implications for Japan’s economy and society. Only two of Japan’s 47 prefectures—Tokyo and neighboring Saitama—saw population increases, while Akita prefecture in northern Honshu experienced the most severe decline.
Japan’s population peaked in 2008 and has steadily shrunk since then due to one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Despite government initiatives, including a 2023 pledge by then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to invest approximately 3.5 trillion yen (about $25 billion) annually in childcare and parent support, the population decline has continued to accelerate.
While Japan has allowed some foreign workers to help address labor shortages, strict immigration policies limit these workers to temporary stays.
The demographic crisis threatens Japan’s position as the world’s third-largest economy and a global leader in industries ranging from automotive manufacturing to semiconductor production and game development, potentially validating Musk’s concerns that “Japan will disappear if something doesn’t change.”