Forecast: Mobile service revenue in Japan to increase at 3% CAGR

The total mobile service revenue in Japan is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 per cent from $46.9 billion (€43.3bn) in 2024 to $54.5 billion in 2029, mainly supported by the growth in mobile data service revenues, forecasts GlobalData, the data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Japan Mobile Broadband Forecast model (Q1 2025) reveals that the mobile data service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 3.8 per cent over the same period, driven by the continued rise in mobile internet subscriptions, growing consumption of data services over high-speed wireless networks, especially with the increasing adoption of higher-ARPU yielding-5G services.

Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “The average monthly mobile data usage in Japan is expected to increase from 14.3 GB in 2024 to 25.9 GB in 2029, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, thanks to the growing availability and adoption of 5G services and data-centric offers extended by telcos with their 5G service plans.”

4G accounted for the largest share of mobile subscriptions in the country until 2024. 5G subscriptions will surpass 4G subscriptions in 2025 and go on to account for 87.2 per cent share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2029, driven by the telcos’ 5G network expansions and wider availability and affordability of 5G service plans.

The evolution and expansion of 5G networks will also add fillip to the M2M/IoT service adoption in the country as companies explore new IoT/M2M use cases enabled by 5G networks. M2M/IoT subscriptions are expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.9% over the forecast period, driven by MNOs focus on tapping M2M/IoT opportunities.

Zeeshan concluded: “NTT Docomo will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2029 given its strong focus on 5G network expansion and M2M/IoT offerings. The company is also partnering with SK Telecom and equipment vendors such as Fujitsu, NEC, and Nokia for collaborative trials of potential frequency bands for 6G communications.”